Regional Mixed Migration Trends Analysis 2nd Quarter 2012

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In the second quarter of 2012 (1st of April -31st of June) based on data recorded, the following trends relevant to mixed migration in the region were identified:

Increased movement to Yemen

In this quarter a total of 22,512 new arrivals were recorded disembarking from vessels crossing both the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea in a total of 326 boat trips. This means that on average 28 crossings were made every week carrying, on average, 69 people per boat not including crew/smugglers. The new arrivals figure for the second quarter is an 11.7% increase compared to the second quarter of 2011 and an 85% increase on 2010 figures for the same quarterly period.

According to the UNHCR, Yemen has seen a record number of African migrants flowing to its coast this year. There is speculation that this may be due to the insecurity in Yemen which has made it difficult to patrol the coast and also a thriving smuggling industry as more people from Ethiopia pursue opportunities in the Middle East – both pull factors in combination with the continuing push factors of poverty, unemployment and for some claims of political persecution

Month	Total Arrivals / 2010	Total Arrivals / 2011	Total Arrivals / 2012
April	4,213	7,030	9,767
May	3,795	7,524	8,040
June	4,145	5,601	4,705
Total	12,153	20,155	22,512

Increased number of Ethiopians crossing to Yemen

In this quarter 17,786 Ethiopians crossed to Yemen in terms of absolute number which represents an 11.2% increase compared to the number of Ethiopian arrivals during the same period in  2011. The new figure of 17,786 is the highest recorded figure since 2006.

Somali’s crossings have risen in absolute terms from 4,415 in 2011 to 4,716 in 2012. This represents a 7% rise in comparison to  Ethiopian new arrivals which have risen by 13% in the same period. The proportion of Somalis (of the total new arrivals) in the second quarter of 2012 decreased by approximately 1% compared to the same quarter in 2011.This means the main increase, proportionally, has been taken up by Ethiopians.

Second Quarter	Non Somalis	Somalis
2011	15,740 (78%)	4,415 (22%)
2012	17,786 (79%)	4,726  (21%)

The search for economic opportunities and insecurity continues to be the key motivating factors for migrants flowing into Yemen.

Increased number travelling across the Red Sea instead of the Gulf of Aden

There is a clear trend illustrating that an increasing number of Yemen-bound migrants depart from Djibouti. In the second quarter of 2012 there was an 11.3% increase in the number of migrants using the Red Sea crossing to Yemen compared to the second quarter of 2011. However the proportion of migrants making the crossing from Djibouti as opposed to Puntland did not change between 2011 and 2012 second quarter.

Second Quarter	Red Sea arrival total	Arabian Sea arrival total	Total	% Red Sea arrivals	% Arabian Sea arrivals
2010	9439	5207	14638	64%	36%
2011	15075	5080	20161	74%	26%
2012	16774	5738	22511	74.5%	25.5%

In the second quarter of 2012, of a total of 22,512 recorded new arrivals 74.4% were smuggled across the Red Sea which represents a 0.5% increase compared to the second quarter of 2011.

Second Quarter	Arabian Sea arrival  total	Percentage of Non-Somalis	Percentage of Somalis
2010	5207	67.5%	32.5%
2011	5080	49%	51%
2012	5738	60.8%	39.2%

Changing location of arrival points in Yemen  

Not surprisingly, with more people leaving from Djibouti and crossing the Bab El Mandeb strait, the numbers of boat arrivals in Tai’zz and Lahj governorates in Yemen  remains high and is increasing compared to other Governorates.

Governate	Second Quarter 2011	Second Quarter 2012
Tai’zz	141	152
Lahij	414	102
Abyan	0	1
Shabwa	25	25
Hadramout	98	81

Hadramout governorate which geographically directly faces the migrant departure point of Bossaso in Puntland, registered a decrease in boat arrivals in the second quarter of 2012 from 98 in 2011 to 81 in 2012.

Changing vulnerabilities for Yemen-bound migrants 1: Incident at sea

In the second quarter of 2012 a total of 3 deaths from drowning were reported both of which occurred in the month of June 2012. This is a major shift compared to 2011 where there were 3 tragic boat incidences involving forced disembarking in deep waters, boats sinking and migrants suffocation and high numbers of fatalities. The change could be attributed to the low risk of disembarking migrants at the coastal shores due to the insecurity in Yemen (reduced patrols by Yemeni coast guards); it could also be linked to the rise in kidnappings for ransom where smugglers collude with kidnappers and the value of living new arrivals has risen (i.e. commoditization value of migrants).

Changing vulnerabilities for Yemen-bound migrant 2: Kidnapping and extortion

There continues to be escalating incidences of kidnappings, torture and sexual attack of migrants in Yemen, specifically at the points of arrival. This is  a trend that began in 2011 and has sharply risen in 2012.

Fleeing Somalis: To Ethiopia and Kenya

The flow of Somalis to Kenyan refugee camps has continued although the country stopped the registration of Somali refugees at Dadaab refugee camp in October 2011. According to UNHCR figures the number of registered Somali refugees in Kenya as of end of June 2012 was approximately 532,222 a figure that increased by 18% compared to October 2011 figures of (450,000) when registration at camps in Dadaab was suspended .

In the second quarter the total number of refugees from Somalia arriving in Ethiopia increased to  203,952 individuals according to UNHCR’s  population statistics for June 2012. The World Food Programme has attributed the rising trend of Somalis seeking refuge in Ethiopia to poor rains and the ongoing conflict. Hunger remains a problem for families who are forced to leave their homes in search for food.

The UNHCR also reported in early July that the Somali refugee population in the Horn of Africa had surpassed the 1 million mark but equally emphasized that main arrivals in Kenya and Ethiopia had decreased by approximately 78% compared to the first half of the last year when Somalia experienced the worst drought in decades.

The level of internal displacement in Somalia especially along the Afgoye corridor has significantly declined to a figure of around 130,000 based on UNHCR data for May 2012. The corridor had the largest number of internally displaced persons in the year 2011 especially at the height of the political crisis when the Al-Shabaab had control of parts of Mogadishu.

The above overview summary of movements and trends offers a snap shot of the  second quarter of 2012 main indicators. The details of particular movements and the issues and conditions around them can be found in other RMMS literature and resources on this website as well as on related websites of agencies active in the mixed migration sector (see links).

RMMS analysis is developed from data from different sources: 

1. The central source of data for all arrivals and movement in Yemen is the Yemen Mixed Migration Task Force (predominantly developed from Danish Refugee Council and UNHCR systems in Yemen)

2. Data on internal displacement in the Horn of Africa as well as refugee data in the region is sourced from UNHCR.

3. Data used from outside these sources will always be attributed (e.g. from IOM or IDMC etc)

 

 

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