Future Migration Scenarios Analysis
Horn of Africa & Yemen region: patterns, drivers & future scenarios of mixed migration
This research was an agreement between the Oxford-based International Migration Institute (IMI) and the Regional Mixed Migration Secretariat (RMMS). It was developed to examine the patterns and drivers of contemporary movement and also to explore the potential futures of mixed migration flows, with the accompanying risks and opportunities.
The research examined the scale and scope of the various protection and assistance mechanisms required for the near and mid-term future in order to inform government policy, donor strategy and programming by humanitarian and development organizations. Using a new approach to future scenarios analysis pioneered by the IMI through its Global Migration Futures (GMF) project (http://www.imi.ox.ac.uk/themes/migration-futures), the research aimed to offer different scenarios for future trends and changes that will directly affect flows of mixed migration within and out of the region.
The scenarios presented were developed in a participatory manner with stakeholders and experts in the region from a wide range of sectors. The backbone of the analysis was based on quantifiable and evidence-based data drawn from different disciplines including demographic, social, political, economic and environmental changes in origin, transit and destination countries.
The IMI / RMMS agreement intended to leverage IMIs methodological and analytical experience and expertise in this area of research and to combine it with RMMS’s local, regional knowledge, data, analysis and contacts with stakeholders working with mixed migration. Scenario analysis offered a more creative, experimental and wide-ranging approach where uncertainties are analysed and assumptions tested and challenged.
The research commenced in early January 2012 and concluded in November 2012.